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Everything indicates that the contest has ended with an unexpected outcome for many: Netflix decided not to improve its offer for Warner Bros., leaving the way open for Paramount to acquire the conglomerate for about 111,000 million dollars.
This concludes a battle that began in October 2025 that unexpectedly reconfigures the global scenario of streaming and entertainment.
A new chapter in the streaming war
By: Gabriel E. Levy B.
At the beginning of December, when Warner leaned towards Netflix’s proposal over Paramount’s, the operation was closed and there was speculation about the new map of the sector.
However, the competitor insisted and showed that constant pressure could turn the tide.
The decisive day was surprising.
Warner evaluated a new proposal from Paramount of $31 per share, compared to the 27.75 offered by Netflix, valuing the company at about $111,000 million and rating it as superior because of the added advantages for shareholders.
A period of four days was then opened for Netflix to equal or exceed the figure.
Far from responding with a counteroffer, Netflix immediately backed away from the negotiation.
The elements that changed the equation
According to Variety, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters pointed out that, although the initially agreed agreement offered value and a clear path to regulatory approval, the new price required made the operation no longer attractive from a financial point of view, so they decided not to match Paramount Skydance’s proposal.
The Origin of the Dispute
The origin of this story dates back to 2016, when AT&T acquired Time Warner for $85.4 billion, debt included, with the intention of integrating assets such as HBO, CNN, Warner Bros. Pictures and DC Comics into a technology and content giant.
The deal faced legal hurdles that delayed the merger by nearly a year and hurt HBO Max’s launch in an increasingly saturated market.
In 2021, AT&T transferred WarnerMedia to Discovery.
The new Warner Bros. Discovery aspired to an ambitious annual investment plan of 20,000 million to reach 400 million subscribers in the world.
However, the objectives did not materialize: since 2022 the shares fell by 60%, with a loss of 35,000 million in stock market value.
In June 2025, the company announced its division into two entities: one focused on studios and streaming and the other on linear networks such as CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery and Bleacher Report, with the intention of divesting itself of the weight of cable channels and a debt of 37,000 million.
That spin-off made Warner a more attractive asset.
In October, the sale process was formalised, boosting the share price by more than 10%.
Among those interested were Netflix, NBCUniversal and Paramount Skydance. The first two were looking for studios and streaming; the third aspired to acquire the totality. David Ellison, head of Paramount, had already presented three informal proposals before October, all rejected.
In November, the non-binding offers arrived: Paramount offered $25.50 per share, while Netflix and Universal maintained non-public figures.
In December there was a second round and Paramount raised its proposal to $26.50. Universal withdrew.
On Dec. 5, Netflix appeared to prevail with $27.75 per share excluding linear channels.
Three days later, Paramount launched a hostile offer of $30 in cash per share to acquire the entire company, backed by the Ellison family, RedBird Capital and sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
With the support of Larry Ellison, the price continued to rise, albeit without immediate success.
The Final Decision
In February, Netflix gave Warner seven days to resume talks with Paramount.
On Feb. 24, it presented its final proposal: $31 per share in cash, debt assumption and additional benefits such as a regulatory penalty of $7 billion if the deal was blocked, the payment of $2.8 billion that WBD would owe to Netflix in the event of a breakup, and shareholder compensation if approval was extended beyond the fall of 2026.
Shareholders waited for a response from Netflix that never came.
Exceeding $30 per share was complex in terms of profitability, especially after a 63% increase compared to Paramount’s first offer.
Sarandos traveled to Washington to meet with Trump administration officials, in search of regulatory clarity, but before concluding the meeting Netflix confirmed that it would not raise its proposal for strictly financial reasons, leaving Paramount as the virtual winner pending formal endorsement.
The impact was immediate: Netflix shares rose about 13%, Paramount’s 5% and Warner’s fell 2%.
The market interpreted Netflix’s withdrawal positively.
The final vote of the board and the regulatory approval phase, which in the best scenario would not conclude before September 30, 2026, are pending.
The political context could favor the operation, considering the well-known relationship between Larry Ellison and Trump.
Paramount and its history of Mergers:
Paramount Skydance Corporation, also known as Paramount, is a multinational media group headquartered in Paramount Pictures’ Los Angeles, California, studio and offices in Santa Monica, California, and New York.
The company emerged from the integration of three companies: Paramount Global, National Amusements (Paramount’s parent company) and Skydance Media, a process that took place on August 7, 2025.
The Future of Netflix
Netflix, for its part, maintains multiple avenues of growth. It signed a deal with Sony for the exclusive world premiere on the platform of titles such as the Spiderverse films, the upcoming ‘Zelda’ and Beatles productions directed by Sam Mendes.
It’s also the streaming home of Universal franchises like “Jurassic World.” It closed 2025 with more than 325 million paying subscribers and projects revenues between 50,700 and 51,700 million dollars by 2026, with an annual investment in content close to 20,000 million.
On the other side emerges an entity that brings together two of the five traditional Hollywood studios still active, along with numerous linear channels and two streaming services.
It’s premature to anticipate mergers between HBO Max and Paramount+, potential archive sales to reduce debt, or tensions between CNN and CBS News under one group. What does seem clear is that, after the fragmentation that began in 2019, the industry is once again concentrating on a smaller oligopoly, with foreseeable consequences for consumers and an increasingly less extensive supply.
In conclusion, the streaming market surprised again with an unexpected outcome. When everything pointed to Netflix being the big winner, consolidating a disproportionate concentration in the sector, Paramount’s proposal ended up prevailing.
The result is the emergence of a new super competitor in an expanding industry with high demand, although still marked by significant financial challenges.
