Hidden under miles of water, undersea cables carry 97% of global communications, connecting continents and transmitting terabits of crucial information. However, recent military manoeuvres near strategic points have sparked international alarm: could these infrastructures, invisible pillars of the global economy and defence, become the next target of a world war? The threat of an intentional cut poses a scenario of unsuspected vulnerability.
A fragile pillar in a hyperconnected world
By: Gabriel E. Levy B.
The history of submarine cables dates back to the nineteenth century, when in 1858 the first telegraph cable crossed the Atlantic, transforming communication between Europe and America. Since then, these cables have evolved considerably.
With the advent of fiber optics, they now transmit data at speeds unimaginable at the time and are an essential resource for financial networks, government information, communication platforms, and the coordination of countries’ strategic operations. According to William J. Broad, a critical infrastructure analyst, submarine cables represent the “invisible backbone” of the modern world, connecting diverse societies and economies in an interdependent network that brings stability to the digital age.
Despite their relevance, these cables are surprisingly vulnerable to damage.
More than 100 outages are reported each year, mainly caused by accidents with boat anchors, fishing activities or natural phenomena.
These interruptions, although frequent, are usually repaired in relatively short periods of time thanks to advanced maintenance operations that allow the connection to be restored in days or weeks, depending on the location and depth of the damage. However, the situation would be very different if the cuts were intentional, since these cables, mostly located in international waters, are exposed to possible attacks by any nation or group with access to appropriate technologies.
In a context of global tensions, this vulnerability makes submarine cables potential strategic targets for actors seeking to destabilize others without resorting to direct armed conflict. According to digital security scholar Henry Farrell, these cables are a “perfect target” for hybrid warfare, as they allow serious damage to be caused without a declaration of war. Any sabotage or deliberate outage would affect multiple nations simultaneously, disrupting communications, financial transactions, and information networks.
This fragility underscores the need for international protection measures.
Unlike other critical infrastructure, submarine cables lack a coordinated global defense system, which poses significant security challenges. The lack of multilateral agreements makes it difficult to implement effective protection and rapid response protocols, increasing the risk of disruptions that could affect both civilians and key sectors of the economy and security.
The ocean, a silent risk zone
Increasing Russian military activity around undersea cables has intensified geopolitical tensions, especially in Europe and North America.
This phenomenon is framed in a context where the control of digital infrastructure represents a fundamental strategic advantage.
According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the presence of Russian submarines in areas near communication cables in the Atlantic and Arctic has increased significantly in the last decade.
For some observers, such as British researcher Keir Giles, these maneuvers suggest that Russia could be seeking to know the exact location and structure of this communications network, for purposes that go beyond simple exploration.
While most submarine cables are located in international waters, where maritime law protects their neutrality, these cables are essentially “unprotected infrastructure” in an area where control and surveillance are limited.
For their part, the Russian authorities have denied any offensive intentions, arguing that their operations in the ocean respond to defensive interests.
However, in the age of cyberwarfare and digital espionage, the real intentions of these movements are difficult to decipher, generating a sense of uncertainty and alertness. For security experts, this is a form of “coercive diplomacy” that uses the implicit threat to sever these connections to influence the decisions of its adversaries.
A silent attack that could paralyze the world
The potential impact of a coordinated attack on submarine cables would be devastating. Unlike accidental outages, which usually affect only a specific area, strategic sabotage could damage multiple hotspots in this network, leaving entire countries cut off.
This would not only affect communications between civilians, but also military operations and the transmission of government and financial data, generating paralysis at a global level.
Sociologist and digital security expert Susan Landau argues that these types of cyberattacks could become the “new face of modern warfare,” characterized by its ability to cause massive damage without the need to invade physical territories.
In this context, an attack on submarine cables poses a particularly serious threat, as their physical invisibility hinders the ability to respond. In addition, repairs to submarine cables, especially in hard-to-reach areas, can take weeks or even months, creating prolonged chaos in a world that depends on the immediacy of digital communication.
Governments of several nations have begun to take preventive measures, beefing up surveillance of their undersea cables and collaborating with technology companies to develop advanced monitoring systems.
However, protecting thousands of miles of cable on the ocean floor remains a titanic and expensive task. The lack of a clear international cooperation framework also complicates the situation, since, unlike other strategic resources, these submarine cables do not have a global protection regime, leaving their security to the will of each nation.
Lessons from previous attacks
The threat of sabotage of submarine cables is not just a theory. In 2015, Turkey experienced a massive disruption to its internet networks, leaving millions of citizens incommunicado and leading to major economic losses. Although the causes of this outage were never fully clarified, some analysts suggested that it may have been a test of what a coordinated attack on submarine cables could accomplish.
Another relevant case is that of Egypt, where, in 2008, a cable cut affected the connections of several nations in the Middle East and Asia, forcing internet operators to redirect data traffic and evidencing the fragility of this system.
The incidents in Turkey and Egypt reveal how even a single outage can have a significant impact, multiplied when targeting critical infrastructure. In addition, these cases have served as a warning to governments and companies about the need to create alternative routes and contingency plans to prevent a cut in the cables from causing a global collapse.
In conclusion, the possibility of submarine cables becoming the next global battlefield poses unprecedented challenges to the security and stability of the digital world. These often overlooked cables are the silent pillar that sustains modern life. In the face of this threat, it is essential that governments work cooperatively to protect and ensure the security of this critical infrastructure and develop prevention and response measures that reduce the vulnerability of the global communications network.
