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The arrival of 5G promised to revolutionize global connections, while Starlink and its direct-to-mobile satellite connection fuels new narratives about the end of traditional technologies.
However, these projections face a more complex reality: the future of internet access is not in the monopoly of one technology, but in the strategic coexistence of several.
Between fibre optics, mobile networks and satellites, the connectivity ecosystem is defined more by its limitations than by its hegemony.
The Myth of the Unique Technology: A Recurring Story
By: Gabriel E. Levy B.
Throughout the history of telecommunications, every disruptive advance has led to a mixture of exaggerated expectations and unfounded fears about the disappearance of existing technologies.
In the 1870s, Alexander Graham Bell’s invention of the telephone led to forecasts that predicted the end of the telegraph.
However, both technologies coexisted for decades, sharing an ecosystem in which each played a complementary role.
In 2019, the arrival of 5G caused a new cycle of exaggerated expectations.
Technology companies and operators promoted this network as the definitive solution for all connectivity needs, while rumors about the end of home connections by fiber or cable gained ground.
However, experts such as Michael Wheeler, from NCTA – The Internet & Television Association, warned that “5G will not replace home connections, but will complement them, especially in areas where fiber optics are still more cost-effective and efficient.”
This type of technical analysis contrasts with the simplistic narrative that seeks to position each technology as a hegemonic solution.
The announcement of Starlink in 2023 reignited this pattern of disproportionate expectations.
Elon Musk unveiled the ability to connect mobile devices directly via satellites, fueling speculation about the end of traditional mobile and terrestrial networks.
However, as with 5G, these predictions underestimate the technical and economic challenges of each technology.
The history of telecommunications shows that the most successful technologies do not eliminate their predecessors; instead, they find their place within an ecosystem where complementarity is the key to evolution.
Starlink and the role of satellite connectivity
Starlink is presented as the salvation for rural and remote areas where fiber optics are unviable.
According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 37% of the world’s population did not have access to the internet in 2022, most of them in hard-to-reach areas.
For these regions, satellite infrastructure, with its ability to operate in places where terrestrial networks do not reach, is an invaluable solution.
However, this technology is not without its challenges.
Low-orbit satellites like Starlink’s face congestion issues. Each satellite has a limited capacity to support users, which generates a decrease in the speed and quality of service as demand grows.
In addition, the costs associated with deploying this infrastructure are significantly high.
Scientific American magazine cited in 2021 an analysis by the consulting firm NSR, which stressed that “the business model of satellite connectivity must balance massive investments and affordable prices, a challenge in regions with lower purchasing power.”
Thus, while satellite internet offers coverage where other technologies fail, its ability to replace mobile networks and terrestrial connections is limited by its own characteristics.
Starlink Satellite Networks at the Limit?
Starlink’s recent announcement about the introduction of a “congestion charge” marks a pivot in its residential satellite internet service.
This surcharge, applicable in areas of high demand, seeks to mitigate the saturation of their network while they work to expand their capacity.
According to the company, the rate, which varies between regions, is applied when contracting new plans, modifying services or changing addresses, and will be eliminated once the network better supports demand.
In Mexico, for example, the charge reaches 1,950 pesos, while in the United States it is 100 dollars.
Mobile networks and fibre optics: allies, not competitors
Fiber optics, meanwhile, continue to be the backbone of internet access, especially in urban areas.
Its ability to transmit large volumes of data with minimal latency and its stability in harsh weather conditions make it ideal for applications that require high reliability, such as remote work, telemedicine, and online entertainment.
On the other hand, mobile networks continue to play a key role in portable and urban connectivity. With 5G, these networks reach speeds that compete with fiber optics in certain scenarios, but their mass deployment is expensive, and their coverage in rural areas remains limited.
As Susan Crawford, an expert in telecommunications policy, pointed out, “the combination of mobile networks and fiber optics is the most effective in providing robust and accessible connectivity to the majority of the population.”
The mixed model not only responds to a technical logic, but also an economic one.
Telecommunications is a sector where “one size fits all” solutions have proven to be ineffective.
Dense urban areas, with high demand, justify investment in fibre and 5G, while rural areas find a more appropriate answer in satellite.
Home networks, the queens of high-speed
Home networks have established themselves as the fundamental pillar of modern connectivity.
Mainly based on fiber optics, these networks are the only ones capable of guaranteeing ultra-fast speeds and minimal latency for a large number of simultaneous users.
This makes them the ideal solution for applications that demand a constant and stable flow of data, such as remote work, telemedicine, online gaming, and high-definition streaming platforms.
Fiber optics, with its ability to transmit data through pulses of light at close to the speed of light, offers stability and bandwidth that no other technology can match.
Unlike satellite networks, which face inherent limitations due to congestion and distance between satellites and users, home networks can effortlessly manage the simultaneous access of tens or hundreds of devices in a single home.
In addition, while 5G promises similar speed in ideal scenarios, its ability to maintain this quality is compromised in densely populated areas or inside buildings, where signals can weaken or face interference.
According to Susan Crawford, “fiber optics not only define the present, but will be the indispensable foundation for the digital economy of the future.”
The promise of satellite internet and 5G, while significant, fails to reach the levels of sustained speed and capacity that fiber optics offers, thus cementing home networks as the undisputed queen of high-speed and the future of global connectivity.
In conclusion
The future of the internet does not belong to a single technology, but to a mixed portfolio that combines fiber optics, mobile networks and satellites. Each has its niche: fiber for high densities, mobile networks for portable devices, and satellite for remote areas. As Tim Wu said in his book The Master Switch, “true innovation does not displace, it integrates”. This will also be the case with access to the internet, an ecosystem that, in its diversity, finds its strength.
References
- Wheeler, M. (2019). NCTA – The Internet & Television Association.
- ITU. (2022). Global connectivity data.
- Crawford, S. (2020). Fiber: The Coming Tech Revolution—and Why America Might Miss It.
- Scientific American. (2021). NSR Analysis on Satellite Connectivity Challenges.
- Wu, T. (2010). The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires.