No one saw it coming so quickly. While the future of employment and free trade was being discussed in forums and parliaments, a silent but lethal actor took the lead: artificial intelligence on wheels.
Autonomous vehicles are no longer prototypes of a technology fair, but rolling realities that advance directly to the heart of the labor market. And in their path, they threaten to erase one of the oldest and most widespread professions in the world: driving.
The future of work will not be chosen, it will be imposed
By: Gabriel E. Levy B.
For centuries, transportation has been a cornerstone of the economy. From stagecoaches to steam trains, the figure of the driver – in multiple forms – has been essential to move goods, people, stories.
In the twentieth century, the massification of the automobile and the rise of land transport consolidated a gigantic workforce.
Driving became an accessible, flexible, and above all, available job option for millions without advanced studies or specialized technical skills.
Statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm that more than 3.5 million people make a living from truck driving in the United States.
In Mexico, according to INEGI data, more than 700,000 people depend directly on cargo and passenger transport.
In the European Union, it is estimated that more than 11 million jobs are linked, directly or indirectly, to driving.
Back in 2017, economist David Autor warned that “automation won’t destroy all jobs, but it will eliminate those that are routine and predictable in the first place”—and few jobs meet that definition as perfectly as the car driver. Today, with the emergence of autonomous level 4 and 5 systems – those that no longer require human intervention – that future has arrived.
It’s not science fiction, it’s a production line
Companies such as Tesla, Waymo (a subsidiary of Alphabet, Google’s parent company) and Aurora, among many others, are already testing and in some cases operating entire fleets of autonomous vehicles in real scenarios.
Driverless, remotely supervised or fully autonomous trucks already transport goods between cities in states such as Texas, Arizona or Nevada.
The sales pitch is powerful: efficiency, reduced human error, elimination of downtime, and increased road safety.
According to data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, more than 90% of traffic accidents are related to human error.
From this logic, replacing the human would even seem to be an act of social responsibility.
But beneath the surface, there is a transformation that can generate mass unemployment in record time.
Because it’s not just about eliminating the driver from the truck. The chain of jobs associated with this activity – service stations, workshops, stops, passing hotels, driver training – will also suffer a devastating impact.
In the words of sociologist Richard Sennett, “technology changes the nature of work before society has time to adapt.”
And that is where the problem acquires a deeper dimension. What do we do with millions of people displaced from one day to the next, without an effective safety net or job retraining plans? How does a 50-year-old man who has been driving a truck for two decades reinsert himself into the market?
The dream of driving to survive is fading
Driving, in many countries, has historically been an emergency exit when all else fails. When you lose a formal job, when the economy collapses or when someone has to reinvent themselves without many resources, driving a taxi, an Uber or a combi has been, and still is, a lifeline.
It is an activity that does not discriminate by age, academic level or immigration status.
However, that containment network is about to disappear.
A report by McKinsey & Company estimates that by 2030, up to 70% of the kilometers traveled by urban delivery vehicles in large cities could be automated.
In other words, they will be carried out by machines. According to the World Economic Forum, job losses due to automation in transportation will exceed 25 million positions in the next decade.
The speed of this transformation is directly related to the economic incentive: an autonomous truck can work 24/7, does not receive a salary, does not get sick or need vacations.
In a world where competitiveness is measured by efficiency, human presence is beginning to be seen as an obstacle, not a necessity.
And although there is talk of job reconversion, the real process is complex.
Digital literacy, access to technical training programmes and effective re-entry into new industries require time, resources and political will.
So far, those ingredients are in short supply.
They are already circulating on the world’s highways
Several cases exemplify how the revolution is already underway.
Waymo, for example, has been operating a fleet of driverless robotaxis in Phoenix, Arizona, since 2020.
In mid-2024, it began expanding into San Francisco and Los Angeles. Aurora, meanwhile, is making actual deliveries with autonomous trucks on interstate routes.
In 2021, the company TuSimple carried out the first fully autonomous journey of a truck without human intervention, from Tucson to Phoenix, more than 100 kilometers.
In China, Baidu and Pony.ai have already received permits to operate self-driving taxis without a safety driver in several cities. In Europe, countries such as Germany and Sweden have also passed laws for autonomous vehicles of certain levels to operate commercially.
In Latin America, although adoption is slower, delivery and logistics companies are beginning to experiment with autonomous or semi-autonomous units. Rappi, for example, has invested in small autonomous delivery vehicles in high-traffic areas.
In Mexico, a reform is being discussed to allow testing of autonomous trucks in industrial zones.
The trend is global. And with each new kilometre driven without a driver, technological viability becomes economic viability. It’s only a matter of time before the big players in transportation—DHL, FedEx, UPS, Amazon—adopt these systems en masse.
In conclusion, the automation of freight and transport vehicles will not only change the way we move and receive products, but will radically redraw the planet’s labour map. If social protection measures, technical education and new opportunities are not created, the promise of progress could become a field of mass unemployment. Because when trucks drive themselves, who will be behind the wheel of our lives?
References
- Author, David. “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2015.
- Sennett, Richard. Character corrosion. Anagrama, 2000.
- McKinsey & Company. “Autonomous Vehicles: The Road to Real Adoption.” 2023.
- World Economic Forum. “The Future of Jobs Report.” 2023.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA), Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics.
- INEGI, Economic Census 2020.
